The fallacy of inference, in reality, smoke screens an illusion in using the pretext of natural science to prove metaphysical pseudo-science. Often overlooked are the dedicated time, energy and efforts the real practitioner puts into his or her investigation. In the real world, police officers work very hard to establish the facts. As opposed to summoning the advice of ghost busters. Instead of following the facts, we conjure “experts” who consult the spirit world. People want comfortable, uncomplicated and trouble-free solutions. As a result, people get excited the closer they get to the edge of metaphysical illusions, charmed by effortless thinking. Rather than applying the logical deduction of serious critical thinking, we turn to movie magic. Get ideas from television shows. As we strive to comprehend criminal motivations, the search for the quick fix, easy conclusion for simplistic solution stirs the drama of imagination.
Overall, aren’t the psychics and the profilers doing the same thing? Gazing into the mystical realm of crime causation’s crystal ball? Pseudo-science, creative guesswork, right? We could conclude it’s all very clever sleight of hand trickery, designed to hoodwink the gullible public. And, justify funding, reputations or other hidden agenda. Long term, such deception has a profound affect on public policy. Thereby influencing police operations and subsequent investigative processes. Our thinking is likewise impinged. We seem to be fixated on the surreal contrived manifestations of fantasy instead of actuality. Most of us want to find the ultimate cause and effect reason to rationalize the mystery of human criminality. So, when science doesn’t answer the entire question we want answered. People invent stuff.
If psychic detectives and criminal profilers are so successful, then how come the national violent crime clearance rate is dropping? In an assessment of major offenses, crime solution rates slipped for the last fifty years. For several decades, we’ve witnessed a decline in solving the serious crimes. In spite of psychic detectives, criminal profiling and a multiplicity of associated theories, we seem to be doing worse. Now, add to this, the vast array of “investigative reporting” from the media entertainment industry. Shows that dramatize the theories, causes and subsequent solutions concerning major crimes. Instead, the televised guesses serve to collude with the other speculative fallacies. All of which helps to confuse and distort the reality of criminal investigations.
From movie magic to mainstream news coverage, instantaneous responses to crime problems suggest we’ve got all the answers. Bottom-line, we don’t. For want of such, a myriad of seemingly profound generalizations purport rapid solvability. Naturally, this reflects our obsession with “reel” to real fantasy to reality infusions. These are pretended in the fabrication of getting inside the “criminal mind”. In the same instance, these melodramatic assertions juggle the avoidance of clear, compelling and convincing proof. Not to forget of course the obligation of requisite scientific replication. To make matters more perplexing, talk shows are good at calling up an array of “experts. From the hallowed halls of academia, or retirement from government service, arrogance of ego rushes to fill clever sound bytes.